Not surprisingly, the RMB against the U.S. dollar will record the biggest annual decline since the Reuters data recording this year; in 2017, institutions was almost overwhelmingly continue to look down, just a different depreciation rate difference.
Analysts pointed out that the consistency of the expected depreciation, also highlights the current mechanism, including the expected management has some problems, how to resolve this kind of consistency or differentiation of expectations, will directly affect the next exchange rate performance, and exchange rate marketization.
Next year the greater the degree of the RMB will be dominated by the strength of the U.S. dollar, if the dollar appears moderate appreciation, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fall at the bottom of the 7.10-7.15 yuan range." Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Information Management Department said.
He also pointed out that China's economic fundamentals in the short term will not significantly improve but it will not be obvious deterioration, the RMB exchange rate response to domestic economic factors is not obvious, more from the strong dollar. But because the market for Trump to take expansionary policies and the effect can be achieved is uncertain, "this is the next year, the RMB devaluation is not good reason to judge, but the direction is optimistic about the dollar, devaluation of rmb."
The exchange rate forecast for next year, Singapore OCBC Bank economist Xie Dongming said, "is to forecast the RMB, placed inside a package of monetary framework, assuming that next year the currency basket performance as the second half of this year that is relatively stable, we calculate the next year should be around 7.1 yuan, or more limited."
Of course, he also said that if the euro zone next year, a lot of accidents, the dollar may passively rose, which may make the RMB more tangled.
Although the reform of the RMB exchange rate market has been more than 11 years, but basically in the unilateral appreciation or unilateral devaluation, so the trend of the RMB exchange rate is expected to take the method of trend extrapolation is often more successful at the beginning of this year, the market is generally expected by the end of the yuan fell to 6.8-6.85 yuan level, the performance of the exchange rate has exceeded market expectations, which also led to a lot of institutions more pessimistic about the RMB exchange rate performance next year.
For example, Deutsche Bank forecast had earlier announced that the dollar will weaken further at the end of 2017 to 7.4 yuan, to the end of 2018 to 8.10 yuan.
To do a simple trend extrapolation deduction, such as the three annual decline of RMB respectively 2.42%, 4.46% and 6.37%, then at least next year is to maintain a certain decline, if this year closed at 6.9354 yuan (December 15th closing price), according to the experience of a certain institution of presumption of decline, 5%-8% or 10%. The expectation of RMB may fall to 7.3-7.6 yuan or even lower level next year.
No matter what method, the results seem to be devalued, and the market is also more willing to believe that the RMB will continue to depreciate next year, because the operation is believed to gain depreciation of the proceeds. The parties also worried after $50 thousand quota recovery next year, the huge demand for foreign exchange purchase whether to allow the renminbi to face greater downward pressure.